Trump Voters Backing Zohran Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: The Biggest Unexpected Outcomes from New York’s Mayoral Race

Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just the winner overall, but block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously backed the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. But overall, largely the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.