Aston Villa Defy All Gravity Once More as Winning Run Continues at Chelsea

This surely should not continue. It makes no rational sense that it persists. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Against the Odds

Aston Villa entered the weekend's top-flight clash at Chelsea aiming for a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, this feat seemed improbable, as the hosts dominated proceedings, secured the lead, and might have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea are frailty with a lead, particularly at home, while Villa now possess a baffling knack of securing wins on the road after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post following his initial shot was saved by the goalkeeper. Later on, he nodded in the decisive goal with a deft header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. The forward might feel a bit of luck was due, and it's undeniable the equalizing goal had a large slice of good fortune. Currently, however, fortune is smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Of an Implausible Streak

The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have kept a shutout in only one of those matches. Their expected goals (xG) have been better in just six of those encounters, and in two of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This pattern should not, but observers have been saying that for weeks, and Villa continue winning. The central question is whether their outcomes will eventually match their displays or if their level of play can improve to justify the results.

This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everybody's been saying that for weeks and Villa continue winning.

A Defining Trait: Resilience

Coming from behind is not just a trait of the current campaign. Over the past 3 seasons, no team has won more points when trailing than Villa's fifty-four; Eighteen of those were secured this term, fifty percent more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa players from the bench have contributed 9 goals. Two key points can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no deficit ever feels beyond them. This is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they are convinced they can do it again.
• Second, Emery has proven exceptionally adept at influencing games with his substitutions.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the xG battle 2.1 to 1.4, Villa became the dominant force from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Suddenly, the ball began to stick, and Watkins's runs behind the defensive line created issues. Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, strengthening the midfield and adding the width they had lacked earlier.

The Blues registered ten attempts to Villa's zero before the changes; afterwards, Villa had eleven opportunities to Chelsea's 4. By the end, Villa were commanding and could have won by a greater margin. Not for the first time, Chelsea boss Maresca seemed unable to react as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is better at devising a game plan with time to prepare than making adjustments on the fly.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have also developed a welcome habit of players producing moments of sensational quality to alter games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him shifting the ball onto his right foot and curling a finish home has become a seasonal leitmotif. It was the winger who changed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of players such as Ezri Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. At present, it's seldom the whole side playing flawlessly, but enough individuals within it delivering to earn the victories.

What Comes Next?

Will they be able to maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they have to be viewed as part of the title race, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away fixture at Arsenal will be a significant test of that claim. Villa beat Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but posted an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have since put together their own run of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both sides – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become almost impossible to deny their championship pedigree.