A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
